Bitcoin Posibleng Mohagsak sa ₱1,742,292 ($30,000) Kon Walay Kauswagan sa Quantum Upgrade

Bitcoin could drop to ₱1,742,292 ($30,000) within a year if developers fail to show progress on quantum-resistant upgrades, according to Capriole Founder Charles Edwards. His Feb. 20 report argues the cryptocurrency currently trades at ₱3,949,195 ($68,000) despite a fair valuation of $120,000 because investors are pricing in quantum computing threats.

Edwards calculated that Bitcoin should trade around $96,000 after applying a quantum risk discount, meaning the asset is already 30% undervalued even with that risk factored in. But the discount could deepen fast, with a 75% quantum discount factor possible by 2029 without network progress.

Between 20% and 30% of Bitcoin's supply has exposed public keys vulnerable to quantum attacks, putting anywhere from ₱16.38 trillion ($282 billion) to ₱24.57 trillion ($423 billion) worth of coins in danger at current prices. CoinShares pegged the legacy Pay-to-Public-Key outputs at 1.6 million BTC, roughly 8% of the 21 million coin supply cap. Only 10,200 BTC would need rapid liquidation to cause appreciable market disruption.

Edwards put a 60% probability on Bitcoin Q-Day happening by 2030 and 80% by 2031, when quantum computers reach 2,300 logical qubits sufficient to threaten current cryptography. Migrating the majority of active users to quantum-resistant wallets would take two years in an aggressive scenario, possibly stretching to three years.

BlackRock amended its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF prospectus to explicitly warn that quantum computing advances could render Bitcoin's cryptography ineffective and force network-wide changes requiring broad consensus. The asset manager noted no assurance exists that transitions would be implemented successfully or on time. A draft proposal called BIP 360 has been submitted to the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository introducing Pay-to-Multisig-Quantum-Resistant-Hash outputs, though Edwards warned that gaining consensus for forced migration of unmigrated coins through a dead man's switch mechanism would clash with Bitcoin's not-your-keys-not-your-coins culture. For long-term investors optimistic about solving the quantum threat, Bitcoin at current levels represents an opportunity through 2031.