₱449.75 trillion ($7.8 trillion) Cash Pile May Fuel Bitcoin Rally at 522-Day Easing Mark

Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland claims a massive rotation is brewing. He pointed to historical patterns showing that 500 to 1000 days after the Fed begins rate cuts, liquidity starts leaving money market funds and flowing into markets.

US money market funds held ₱449.75 trillion ($7.8 trillion) as of the week ended February 18, 2026, according to Investment Company Institute data. Government funds account for ₱369.03 trillion ($6.4 trillion) of that total, with prime funds at ₱69.19 trillion ($1.2 trillion) and tax exempt funds at ₱8.3 trillion ($144 billion). Even a 5% shift would move $390 billion into other assets.

The Fed's effective funds rate dropped from 4.22% in September 2025 to 3.64% in January 2026. Morgan Stanley's analysis shows that as money market yields compress, investors reevaluate where their cash sits, and in prior easing cycles, investment-grade bonds beat cash equivalents between the end of rate hikes and the end of cuts.

The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility drained to just $496 million by February 20, 2026, down from massive balances that dominated liquidity discussions in prior quarters. The next rotation depends on portfolio choices rather than a mechanical facility unwind.

The stablecoin market sits at $308 billion total, with Tether holding $186 billion of that. That's still far smaller than the money market universe, but Bitcoin gained roughly 72% over three months during the Fed's fall 2024 rate cuts from 5.33% to 4.33%. Crane Data's index showed yields at 3.58% as of January 2, 2026, down from higher levels during the peak rate environment.