Bitcoin Bottom at ₱2.6M? On-Chain Metric Says Yes

₱2.6 million ($45,225). That's where Bitcoin's true bottom sits according to an on-chain metric that hasn't missed a major price floor since 2012.

Market analyst Ali Martinez revealed on X that the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) indicator currently pegs Bitcoin's support at that level. Bitcoin trades at roughly ₱4.06 million ($70,000) as of February 14, 2026 — about ₱1.4 million above the CVDD line. The metric, launched alongside Bitcoin itself in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, has accurately marked the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of ₱4.24 million ($73,172.29) on February 5, 2026, but quickly fell to the mid-₱3.6 million range (mid-$60,000s) by mid-February. That's a 47.5% drawdown from its October 2025 peak above ₱6.96 million ($120,000). Compare that to Ethereum's 60.7% drop and Solana's brutal 69.5% decline — Bitcoin is holding up better than major altcoins. The market structure shows a transition phase rather than full panic.

BTC futures open interest dropped 20% from ₱3.5 trillion ($61 billion) to ₱2.8 trillion ($49 billion) in recent weeks, down sharply from the October 2025 peak above ₱5.2 trillion ($90 billion). Daily trading volume hovers near ₱2.5 trillion ($43 billion) while Bitcoin's market cap sits at ₱81 trillion ($1.398 trillion) with 19.99 million coins in circulation.

The 90-day realized volatility stands near 38 — half the level seen during the 2022 bear market when it exceeded 70. Bitcoin currently trades at -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, a level it hasn't touched in the past 10 years. That extreme deviation historically signals oversold conditions, though CVDD suggests the absolute floor remains ₱1.4 million lower. On February 14, 2026, Bitcoin's price jumped nearly 2% in 24 hours to reach ₱4.07 million ($70,215) from ₱3.99 million ($68,857.84) the previous day.