Bitcoin Clears ₱4,443,957 ($74,000) as Weak Conviction Clouds Rally
Bitcoin cleared the ₱4,443,957 ($74,000) level during its recent rally. But weak conviction from buyers is raising doubts about whether the bull run can sustain momentum, with traders questioning whether buy-side pressure is strong enough after previous market collapses.
Key Takeaway
Bitcoin cleared ₱4,443,957 ($74,000) but thin buying conviction may choke the rally before it gains real momentum.
Bitcoin broke past ₱4,443,957 ($74,000) as the rally cleared a supply wall that had capped earlier attempts to push higher.
The move came after months of institutional accumulation and supply tightening following Bitcoin's fourth halving in April 2024. That event cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, enforcing the network's built-in scarcity mechanism every 210,000 blocks. Companies accelerated their Bitcoin buying ahead of the halving, pulling coins off exchanges and shrinking available supply.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows added pressure. The US SEC approved the first regulated Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and by late that year inflows had topped ₱1.68 trillion ($28 billion). That flood of institutional capital further reduced exchange inventory, setting up the supply squeeze that helped push prices through resistance.
But the conviction behind the move looks thin. Traders question whether buy-side pressure is strong enough to sustain a full bull cycle, especially after the collapses that followed previous rallies. The 2013-2014 Mt. Gox failure triggered a prolonged bear market after early gains, while the 2022 implosions of Three Arrows Capital, FTX, and BlockFi amplified fear during the last cycle.
Donald Trump's re-election in late 2024 injected optimism into the market with promises of pro-crypto policies and positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset. But that political tailwind hasn't translated into the kind of buying conviction that defines sustained bull runs. Without stronger participation from both retail and institutional buyers, the rally risks stalling despite clearing technical levels.
Bitcoin's halving schedule has historically preceded major price moves, with previous cuts in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020 each followed by extended bull cycles. The latest halving landed on April 19-20, 2024.
This article was written based on reporting from CryptoPotato.
