Bitcoin Rally Stalls at ₱4,025,692 ($67,000) Support, Bottom Still Elusive
Bitcoin climbed over 12% since late February, but technical analysts warn the bear market bottom hasn't arrived. Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen's quantitative models suggest further downside ahead despite recent relief rallies.
Key Takeaway
Bitcoin's 12% bounce since late February looks like a relief rally, not a trend reversal.
Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin's recent rally doesn't mark the bottom of this correction cycle. The former NASA data scientist bases his prediction on logarithmic regression bands and moving average models.
Bitcoin held up through the US-Iran war period while traditional markets wobbled. Cowen's methodology suggests the path of least resistance remains downward.
Prediction markets reflect cautious optimism mixed with downside risk. Polymarket assigns 92% odds to Bitcoin reaching ₱4,506,372 ($75,000) by April 30, but only 35% for hitting ₱4,806,797 ($80,000). Traders still see a 20% chance of a drop to ₱3,905,522 ($65,000) and 3% odds of falling to ₱3,304,673 ($55,000).
Technical analysts watch ₱4,025,692 ($67,000) as the critical support level throughout 2026. A break below that opens the door to $61,500 or even $60,000, according to chart watchers tracking historical patterns. Bitcoin's 2026 performance through March shows why bears aren't convinced yet: January declined 10.1%, February dropped 14.8%, and March barely scraped positive at 0.19%.
History suggests April could break either way. The month averages a 33.4% return across Bitcoin's lifetime, but the median sits at just 7.57%. That wide gap between average and median tells you April has produced both explosive rallies and disappointing flops. The 2021 cycle offers a roadmap: Bitcoin surged from below $30,000 to near $60,000 by April, then declined to stabilize around $40,000 by July.
Cowen's skepticism about a bottom matches data from ETF flows and whale wallets showing more distribution than accumulation. The recent rebounds look like relief rallies rather than trend reversals, with 2026's market structure moving slower than prior cycles.
This article was written based on reporting from BeInCrypto.
