Bitcoin Shorts Pile Up as ₱39.9 billion ($663 million) ETF Inflows Signal Capitulation

Bitcoin perpetual-futures traders pushed funding rates to negative 0.008% on April 18, the weakest reading since 2023, according to Alphractal analysts.

Glassnode reported that negative funding persisted even as Bitcoin stabilized and spot conditions improved. The disconnect was stark: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded ₱39.95 billion ($663.9 million) in inflows on April 17, yet perpetual-futures funding stayed negative even as Bitcoin tried to recover from its drawdown. By April 22, Bitcoin was trading at $78,951, up 12.37% over the prior 30 days.

Alphractal analysts argued their Market Capitulation Oscillator and Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index had dropped into the same extreme zone that had previously appeared near major Bitcoin lows in 2015, late 2018, and 2022. Bitcoin's market dominance stood at 60.1%, reflecting stronger relative performance against altcoins.

Spot ETF flows showed institutional allocators did not vanish when the market turned tense, according to Farside Investors data. Inflows hit ₱24.76 billion ($411.4 million) on April 14 and ₱14.35 billion ($238.4 million) on April 20. The pattern marked a sharp reversal from the five-week outflow streak that drained approximately $3.8 billion through early March.

Coinbase Research concluded in its April outlook that near-term crypto price action was being driven more by macro headlines than by crypto-native catalysts. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March 18 meeting. The IMF warned in its April World Economic Outlook that a longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, and renewed trade tensions could weaken growth and destabilize financial markets, with implications extending through April 2026.