Cboe, Gibanhaw ang Binary Options 18 Ka Tuig Human sa Kapakyasan niadtong 2008

The Chicago Board Options Exchange filed a proposal with the SEC to launch "Yes/No" options—essentially binary options, the same product it tried and failed with in 2008. Back then, Cboe stepped away after thin uptake made the product unviable.

Prediction markets have demonstrated measurable accuracy advantages over traditional polling. The Iowa Electronic Markets averaged a 1.33 percentage-point error on election-eve predictions since 1988, beating traditional polling's 1.62 percentage-point average. That accuracy advantage held even 100 days before elections. PredictIt showed 93% accuracy improvement over chance, while Kalshi hit 78% and Polymarket reached 67%, according to research by political science professor Joshua D. Clinton and researcher TzuFeng Huang. Clinton and Huang noted that PredictIt's higher accuracy stemmed from bet-size caps favoring smaller, deliberate participants over large positions, unlike Kalshi and Polymarket where bigger bets could distort probabilities.

Regulatory barriers that blocked prediction markets have recently crumbled. Kalshi won a federal appeals court lawsuit against the CFTC in October 2024, enabling the first fully regulated U.S. election prediction markets. Susquehanna International Group launched Wall Street's first dedicated prediction markets trading desk in April 2024. Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, for ₱6.49 billion ($112 million) in November 2025 and got approval to relaunch domestically after the CFTC blocked U.S. users in 2022. The Intercontinental Exchange then invested ₱115.83 billion ($2 billion) into Polymarket, valuing the platform at roughly ₱521.24 billion ($9 billion) and positioning ICE as the global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data. DraftKings joined the rush in late 2025, acquiring Railbird Exchange—a CFTC-licensed futures exchange—and launching DraftKings Predictions in 38 states.

Binary options became a dirty phrase after offshore fraud and abusive marketing made them a regulatory target. The CFTC issued a cease-and-desist order against Intrade in 2005, and a federal court ordered the platform to pay ₱173.75 million ($3 million) in 2018 for illegally trading binary options. The CFTC interprets prediction market trades as swaps of commodity futures and options, which explains why every major player now either holds a license or has acquired one through multi-million dollar deals.