Election Betting ETFs Turn Political Risk Into Retail Tickers

Roundhill filed six funds with tickers like BLUP for Democratic presidential wins and REDP for Republican presidential wins. The same color-coded approach extends to Senate control through BLUS and REDS, plus House control via BLUH and REDH. GraniteShares and Bitwise's PredictionShares brand filed similar products, all built on binary event contracts that trade between zero and one dollar.

The mechanics are simple but brutal. Contracts settle at one dollar if your outcome hits and zero if it doesn't. Roundhill's prospectus warns investors could lose all of the fund's value if the wrong party wins. The funds hold contracts directly or use swaps that reference them while parking collateral in cash-like instruments. GraniteShares routes exposure through a wholly owned Cayman Islands subsidiary to meet regulated fund constraints.

The filings drop a jurisdictional fight between the SEC and CFTC into an ETF wrapper. The two regulators have been locked in a tug-of-war over who controls event contracts, and these products put that battle under the SEC's umbrella since they trade as exchange-listed funds. Distribution shifts from specialized prediction market accounts where users make a deliberate choice to ambient brokerage-app tickers where many investors interact through simple narratives and symbols.

Roundhill built exit mechanisms into its funds. Prices cluster near one dollar on the winning side and near zero on the losing side for several consecutive trading days as outcomes become clear. An early determination provision lets the fund exit or roll exposure before final settlement instead of waiting for official results. Senate control ties to the party of the President pro tempore with tie-break mechanics baked in, while House control tracks the party of the elected Speaker. All six Roundhill tickers follow the blue-red naming convention that matches Democratic and Republican party colors in 2026.