Hayes: Bitcoin Stuck Until Fed Prints Money

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told investors to stay on the sidelines until the Federal Reserve injects capital into markets. His crypto hedge fund Maelstrom did almost no trading in the first quarter of 2026, he wrote in an essay published April 16.

Hayes outlined two major threats pushing toward a deflationary collapse: AI job displacement and Iran war commodity chaos. He argued that AI agents are replacing knowledge workers at scale, forcing people earning ₱5,103,052 ($85,000) to ₱5,403,232 ($90,000) annually into unemployment that pays just ₱1,681,006 ($28,000) per year. Those workers will default on consumer credit payments to banks, Hayes said, calling it game over for the fractionalised banking system.

The Iran conflict creates a separate pressure point through commodity markets that could force central banks to print money. Hayes mapped three scenarios for how the war affects Bitcoin. If the war ends immediately, Bitcoin bounces to ₱5,403,232 ($90,000). If Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz shipping and collects tolls in yuan or Bitcoin, the token rallies. If the US destroys Iran's shipping capacity but Iran takes Persian Gulf energy production down with it, Bitcoin still rallies as central banks flood markets with liquidity.

All three scenarios depend on the Federal Reserve opening the money taps. Without that capital injection, Hayes sees no reason to trade, with Bitcoin remaining trapped in a no-trade zone until policymakers respond to either the AI-driven jobs crisis or the commodity market chaos from the Iran war, as of his April 16 analysis.