Oil Hits ₱6,382 ($105): Bitcoin Crashed 14%-27% Each Time Before
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above ₱6,382 ($105) this week, hitting levels last seen nearly four years ago. The threshold matters because Bitcoin crashed each of the three times oil reached that price over the past 12 years, with losses ranging from 14% to 27%.
Key Takeaway
Three data points over 12 years don't prove causation — but Bitcoin crashed every time oil hit $105.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above ₱6,382 ($105) on Monday, hitting levels last seen nearly four years ago. The threshold matters because Bitcoin crashed each of the three times oil reached that price over the past 12 years.
On March 1, 2022, when WTI surged past ₱6,382 ($105) following Russia's escalation in Ukraine, Bitcoin dropped 14% within seven days — falling from ₱2,696,846 ($44,370) to $38,100. Recovery took less than a month. When oil spiked above $105 again on May 4, 2022, after the European Commission proposed a phased embargo on Russian oil imports, Bitcoin crashed 27% over the next week. That correction dragged into a 19-month bear market before Bitcoin reclaimed $39,700.
The first instance came on June 12, 2014, when the Islamic State captured Mosul and Tikrit, pushing WTI above $105. Bitcoin traded at $600 at the time. Less than 10 weeks later, it dropped 21% to $468. It took over two years for Bitcoin to reclaim the $600 level.
Cointelegraph cautioned that pinning a Bitcoin crash on an arbitrary oil price threshold seems far-fetched. The publication noted that three events in 12 years do not prove correlation, pointing instead to other factors like the Mt. Gox exchange liquidation in February 2014 and the Terra-Luna ecosystem collapse in May 2022 as likely causes of those prolonged bear markets.
Binance Research's ten-year analysis shows Bitcoin maintains no correlation with crude oil prices, with correlation values hovering near zero. Bitcoin's price movement tracks tech stocks more closely, with a 0.9 correlation to the IGV index. Any oil impact on Bitcoin operates through indirect pathways: rapid price spikes divert speculator liquidity away from crypto markets, while higher oil costs reduce consumer savings available for investment — but these represent weak and temporary correlation rather than direct causation. US President Donald Trump stated his preference would be for the US to control the oil industry in Iran indefinitely, a comment that may fuel further volatility in crude markets as of March 31, 2026.
This article was written based on reporting from Cointelegraph.
