Prediction Markets Hit ₱1.45 trillion ($23.9 billion) in March as Politics Dominates
Geopolitical events and US politics now drive prediction market growth, with Google Finance providing live odds coverage and mainstream platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket introducing trading guardrails in response to regulatory pressure.
Key Takeaway
Political betting now drives prediction market growth while crypto topics fade to background noise.
Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs released data on Friday showing prediction markets scaled rapidly as geopolitical events now account for the majority of trading volume.
Monthly notional trading volume reached ₱1.45 trillion ($23.9 billion) in March, up from ₱115.08 billion ($1.9 billion) during the same period last year. Transaction counts tell an even sharper story: over 191 million trades executed this month compared to a fraction of that volume twelve months ago.
The shift toward real-world events marks a clear departure from crypto's early betting markets. TRM Labs said geopolitical events, US politics, and macroeconomic decisions now dominate trading activity while crypto-native topics represent a smaller share. Five of Polymarket's highest-volume contracts as of Monday include a bet on whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office by year-end.
Google Finance now provides live odds coverage, bringing these platforms beyond crypto-native audiences. Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans to introduce trading guardrails in March, the same day US lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan bill to ban certain event contracts.
TRM Labs said prediction markets have the potential to evolve beyond speculative platforms into core infrastructure for real-time information aggregation and risk pricing. The firm noted that as liquidity deepens and participation broadens, these markets could serve as forward-looking indicators for policy decisions and geopolitical developments, complementing and in some cases competing with traditional forecasting tools. March's volume sits 12% below January's all-time high of ₱1.45 trillion ($23.9 billion).
This article was written based on reporting from Cointelegraph.
