Toncoin Rally May Stall at ₱181 ($3) as Bitcoin Tests ₱4,960,944 ($82,000)
Toncoin has recovered from an 80% drop after Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on May 4 that Telegram would take direct control over The Open Network. The recent breakout pushed price above $1.55, but the ₱181 ($3) resistance level may prove exhausting.
Key Takeaway
TON's rally faces exhaustion near $3 while Bitcoin shows strength and Ethereum prints bearish signals.
Toncoin has produced one of the market's biggest rallies, blowing through resistance zones in what analysts call a classic momentum squeeze. Buyers flooded in, shorts got trapped, and TON recovered its 50, 100, and 200 EMAs during the breakout. But vertical rallies rarely last forever without corrections, especially after such rapid expansion from low levels.
TON may aggressively retrace and return to earlier breakout zones much sooner than many anticipate if buying pressure wanes close to the ₱181 ($3) resistance level. The RSI indicator sits in overheated territory, a warning sign that momentum may be running thin. Telegram's ecosystem tokens have attracted capital rotation away from slower sectors like privacy coins, but that flow can reverse just as quickly when profit-taking begins.
Bitcoin is testing the $82,000 resistance level for the first time in 380 days. The move comes after a February-March collapse that sent prices down to the mid-$60,000 range, followed by a recovery pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Bitcoin's chart structure looks cleaner than Ethereum's, which has struggled to break through its 100 EMA despite recent attempts near the $2,300 range.
Ethereum is forming a falling star setup beneath major resistance, a bearish pattern that signals waning bullish momentum before a successful breakout. Over the past few months, Ethereum has printed lower highs on longer timeframes while failing multiple rally attempts. The 200 EMA still sits above current price levels, another headwind for bulls trying to push ETH higher.
Capital rotation within crypto itself is another issue driving divergence between assets. Meme coins, privacy assets, and Telegram-related ecosystems are examples of faster-moving sectors attracting attention away from established Layer 1s like Ethereum. Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on May 4 that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main force behind The Open Network, taking direct control over decision-making and upgrades as the largest validator.
TON had dropped 80% from previous highs before trading sideways near $1.30 for months, with network fees falling nearly sixfold during that period. The recent breakout pushed price above the $1.55 level, where the 200-day moving average sits.
This article was written based on reporting from U.Today.
