XRP Trapped Below $1.45 as Macro Noise Kills Demand
XRP trades 62% below its $3.65 record high from July, stuck between $1.35 and $1.45 as macro headwinds choke off fresh demand. Polymarket bettors give the token a 61% chance of falling to ₱61 ($1) before year-end.
Key Takeaway
XRP's fundamentals improved but macro headwinds and thin liquidity keep it range-bound at $1.35 to $1.45.
Marex crypto trading analyst Louis De Backer says XRP faces two forces holding it back: macro noise and thin liquidity that makes price moves fade fast.
Oil above ₱7,004 ($114) per barrel and divided Federal Reserve messaging keep risk budgets tight, De Backer said. Investors default to Bitcoin first, then Ethereum. In that environment, XRP behaves like beta — it moves with the broader complex but struggles to attract standalone demand. When liquidity is thin and derivatives flows dominate, moves can be sharp but often fade without consistent spot buying to turn a push into a trend.
The token launched ETFs in November and Ripple ended its legal battle with the SEC. The company hit a ₱3.07 trillion ($50 billion) valuation in March — more than double Circle's market cap — and signed deals with a South Korean insurance company. Trump even proposed including XRP in a strategic digital reserve.
Polymarket bettors reflect the pessimism. They give XRP just a 13% chance of hitting $3.60 before year-end and a 61% chance of falling to ₱61 ($1) before January 1. Edelman Financial Engines founder Ric Edelman told DL News in March he's not convinced XRP will regain its former stature in this marketplace, calling it sad and unfortunate.
De Backer says XRP isn't broken. It's just stuck in a market that trades macro first and rewards the deepest, most liquid exposures. When that pressure eases and spot flows show up, XRP can move quickly. For now, the token needs to break out of its $1.35 to $1.45 range and hold a new level before January 1.
This article was written based on reporting from Dlnews.
