Bitcoin, Nagpakita ng 50% Win Rate sa Nakalipas na 24 na Buwan
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson discovered a potential turning point in Bitcoin's two-year performance cycle. His rolling window analysis suggests an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now, with an average return target of ₱7,083,564 ($122,000).
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson found that Bitcoin closed exactly half of the past 24 months in positive territory.
He based his analysis on monthly performance data from CoinGlass going back to 2011. Peterson tracks rolling two-year windows to spot potential turning points. He posted his findings on Twitter on February 21, saying the 50-50 split implies an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now. The average return target based on his calculation works out to ₱7,083,564 ($122,000).
Bitcoin traded in the ₱3,890,154 ($67,000) to ₱3,948,216 ($68,000) band during the week of Peterson's analysis, roughly 20% below its level at the start of 2026. Of the six months in 2025 that finished lower, the losses offset the six that closed with gains.
Trader Michael van de Poppe suggested near-term gains could be coming and urged traders to watch for a lift. Analyst Peter Brandt took a more cautious view, arguing a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026 based on longer cycle patterns and the risk of macro shocks.
Polymarket prices December 2026 as only a 17% shot at being the best month of that year, with November getting slightly higher odds at the time of Peterson's February 21 analysis.
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