Banta ng Resesyon, Umakyat sa 48.6%; Bitcoin, Sinusubok ang ₱4.4 Milyon na Support

Umabot sa 48.6% ang recession model ng Moody’s. Ayon sa rekord, tuwing tatama ang numerong ito sa ganitong lebel, hindi pa nangyayari sa kasaysayan na hindi sinundan ng resesyon ang bansa sa loob lamang ng isang taon.

Bumagsak ang US real GDP growth from 4.4% sa Q3 2025 to 0.7% lang annualized sa Q4. Bumaba ng 92,000 ang February payrolls, pushing unemployment to 4.4%. Nasa 0.27 pa lang ang Sahm Rule reading, well below sa 0.50 recession trigger, pero clear na ang direction.

Nag-trade ang Bitcoin sa ₱4,404,801 ($73,777) this week, up 7.51% over 30 days. Nagbuhos ang mga investors ng ₱36.96 bilyon ($619 milyon) sa Bitcoin funds during the week of March 9 alone. Sa three weeks since nagsimula ang Iran crisis, umabot sa roughly ₱83.59 bilyon ($1.4 bilyon) ang total inflows. Nasa ₱88.36 trilyon ($1.48 trilyon) na ngayon ang market cap ng Bitcoin with 58.5% market dominance, habang nag-trade ang Brent crude sa $103.43 amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20.9 million barrels per day or roughly 20% ng global petroleum consumption.

Ang next 12 months ang magbibigay ng first real test ng Bitcoin as a mature institutional asset during a drawn-out slowdown. Inilunsad ang Bitcoin noong 2009 after the Great Recession had already taken hold, at two months lang tumagal ang COVID-19 recession from March to April 2020. This time could reveal kung mag-trade ba ang Bitcoin like a risk asset when the economy softens slowly or hold up as an alternative when confidence in traditional markets starts to fray.

Sinasabi ng bull case na iba ang reaction ng Bitcoin from earlier risk-off periods, behaving more like a policy hedge or an asset outside the banking system. Ang bear case notes na ang normal recession often becomes a liquidity story first, at pwede pa ring mag-trade ang Bitcoin like a risk asset before inflation or monetary concerns kick in. Bumaba ng 64% ang Bitcoin during the Fed's 2022 rate hike cycle at bumagsak ng 39% in a single day during March 2020's liquidity panic.

Pinakikita lang ng New York Fed's yield-curve model ang 18.8% recession probability over the next 12 months, far below sa 48.6% reading ng Moody's.

ℹ️ Article Details

• Source: CryptoSlate
• Original URL: https://cryptoslate.com/moodys-recession-odds-hit-point-of-no-return-preparing-bitcoin-to-show-its-true-market-value-in-2026/
• Reading Time: 3 minutes
• Category: market-analysis
• Tickers: BTC
• Key Takeaway: Bitcoin faces its first real recession test as a mature asset with institutional backing and regulatory clarity.
• Slug: moodys-recession-odds-hit-bitcoin-tests

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