Bitcoin Could Crash Below ₱2,693,648 ($45,000), Analyst Warns
Following a rally above ₱4,429,554 ($74,000), crypto analyst Marmot warned that Bitcoin could still decline significantly further in a three-phase bear market scenario.
Key Takeaway
Three-phase crash scenario predicts Bitcoin could lose another 40% despite recent bounce.
Crypto analyst Marmot dismissed claims that Bitcoin has bottomed out after its recent rally above ₱4,429,554 ($74,000). He warned the cryptocurrency could still crash below ₱2,693,648 ($45,000) in what he describes as a three-phase bear market.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $109,000 before plunging more than 40% to around $74,000. The cryptocurrency briefly rallied after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, but quickly reversed to $71,000 before rebounding past $74,000 again.
Marmot described these upside moves as "fake recoveries" and compared the current environment to the 2022 bear market. He outlined a three-phase crash scenario where Bitcoin already completed phase one with a decline over 54% to around $74,000. His forecast projects an intermediate bottom at $45,500, followed by a brief rally above $45,000, before a final drop pushes Bitcoin below $43,700.
The Fear and Greed Index hit 8 on March 30, marking 59 straight days of Extreme Fear—the longest streak since the FTX collapse in late 2022. Bitcoin also closed its worst opening quarter since 2018 with a 23% loss in Q1 2026. If Marmot's prediction plays out, Bitcoin would fall more than 65% from its all-time high to the projected bottom below $43,700.
This article was written based on reporting from NewsBTC.
