Bitcoin drops 50% from ATH as ₱903,430 ($15,000) shakeout looms
Bitcoin has plunged over 50% from its all-time high reached in October 2025, leaving sentiment in extreme bearish territory. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson warns a sharp ₱903,430 ($15,000) shakeout still remains on the table despite whale accumulation signals.
Key Takeaway
Bitcoin sentiment is at extremes but whale accumulation signals suggest smart money is positioning for recovery.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson says Bitcoin could see a ₱903,430 ($15,000) shakeout despite sitting in extreme bearish territory on his firm's Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index.
Wedson said bears are hiding from the market and sentiment is likely to stay depressed over the next few weeks, with prices moving sideways or slightly lower. He compared the current phase to late-stage fear, where retail investors are exhausted, narratives turn fully negative, and liquidity drains completely while smart money quietly absorbs supply. Downside risks remain but are more limited and contained, with any further drops likely to be smaller in magnitude.
His analysis references the Wyckoff framework, which looks for selling climaxes, springs, and final shakeouts before trend reversals. He expects 5 months of fear and disinterest followed by 5 months of steady accumulation.
CryptoQuant data analyst CW pointed to whale balances rising extremely fast — the most realistic signal in current conditions. Long-term holder metrics support the distress narrative, with the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio dropping to 0.88, below the 1.0 threshold last seen in late 2023. This indicates sustained pressure forcing long-term holders to reduce exposure at a loss.
Wedson's outlook calls for 10 months total before a clearer trend emerges, with 5 months of fear followed by 5 months of accumulation beginning in mid-2026.
This article was written based on reporting from Bitcoinist.
