Bitcoin Nears ₱4,859,245 ($80,000) as Warsh Confirmation Odds Collapse to 25%
Bitcoin climbed to levels not seen since February 28 despite the US-Israel bombing campaign closing the Strait of Hormuz and mounting geopolitical risks. The rally defied expectations as Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation odds on Polymarket plummeted from 92% in March to just 25% by mid-May.
Key Takeaway
Bitcoin's refusal to drop on bad news signals accumulation phase — but Fed uncertainty could still derail the rally.
MAREX Analyst Louis De Backer has a message for traders waiting for a crash.
"The tape is not euphoric. It is stubborn," he said. "That matters because stubborn markets tend to break when they refuse to go down on bad news."
Bitcoin rose almost 4% this week despite mounting geopolitical risks that should be tanking the price. The US-Israel bombing campaign on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a quarter of the world's oil. Higher energy prices typically constrain Fed rate cuts by pushing up inflation. High interest rates drain Bitcoin liquidity.
But the market isn't budging. Institutional money keeps flooding in — over ₱224.74 billion ($3.7 billion) has poured into Bitcoin ETFs since early March, according to DefiLama. CF Benchmark analysts argued just days ago that these inflows would push Bitcoin above ₱4,859,245 ($80,000) "within days." Whales have stopped the heavy selling that hammered prices back in October.
President Donald Trump picked financier Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Warsh told the Senate he wouldn't be Trump's "sock puppet" at the Fed and pledged to maintain central bank independence. Markets loved that message initially — Polymarket odds for his confirmation hit 92% in March. Those odds have since cratered to 25% by mid-May. Even the June 30 deadline shows only 72% odds, down from 91% in early April.
The regulatory picture remains uncertain. Trump signed the Genius Act stablecoin bill into law and agencies are issuing pro-crypto guidelines. But the Clarity Act remains stuck in legislative limbo, and Democrats are polling ahead for November's midterm elections. If they recapture the House, the window for major crypto legislation closes until at least 2028.
This article was written based on reporting from Dlnews.
