XRP Could Crash Below $1.00 Despite $1.35 Bounce
Crypto analyst CasiTrades identified bearish divergence on the RSI and projected an extended crash bringing XRP below $1.00, with downside targets at $1.13 and $1.08. Bulls need to reclaim $1.40 to invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key Takeaway
XRP's $1.35 bounce may trap buyers before deeper lows, with half its supply already underwater.
Crypto analyst CasiTrades warned that XRP's recent bounce above $1.35 is exactly where traders get caught. The rebound does not represent a true change in structure, he said, but another move inside a larger bearish pattern that has still not been invalidated.
CasiTrades identified bearish divergence on the RSI, where momentum ticked higher while price failed to produce a stronger breakout. He projected an extended crash bringing XRP below $1.00, with multiple degrees aligning to the downside. The first downside target sits at $1.13, matching XRP's early February crash bottom.
Bulls need to reclaim $1.40 to invalidate the bearish case. Without a new high, CasiTrades said, nothing has changed. XRP is still trading right between support and resistance, he added, calling the current price action noise inside the same larger pattern.
The warning comes as 50% of XRP's supply sits underwater and the MVRV ratio hit its lowest level since July 2024. Institutional interest has cooled, with XRP ETFs experiencing net outflows of ₱1.67 billion ($28 million) in March despite Bloomberg's 95% approval forecast for additional filings.
If the breakdown materializes, CasiTrades sees macro support around $1.08 at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, followed by a deeper support zone around $0.87 at the 0.854 level. The analyst's projection targets a final move below $1.00, amplified by rising realized losses among holders. April has historically been XRP's strongest month, averaging a 24.8% return, suggesting the current bounce may be seasonally driven rather than structural.
This article was written based on reporting from Bitcoinist.
