Robinhood Shares Drop 8% After Missing Q1 Estimates

Robinhood shares dropped 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported Q1 revenue of ₱67.85 billion ($1.1 billion), missing estimates by 7%. The miss was driven entirely by crypto weakness. Transaction-based crypto revenue plunged 47% as Bitcoin traded 40% below its peak and many altcoins fell 75% or more. The broader crypto industry saw ₱92.53 trillion ($1.5 trillion) in value wiped out during the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.39, nearly 10% below analyst expectations, while adjusted EBITDA of ₱32.94 billion ($534 million) missed by 9%.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintained his outperform rating Wednesday with a $130 price target, arguing crypto has stabilised in April. The firm forecasts full-year 2026 earnings per share of $2.65, running 23% ahead of consensus estimates.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has repeatedly stated he wants to move the narrative away from Bitcoin price cycles toward infrastructure and long-term financial services. The company's other revenue streams showed strength. Transaction revenue outside crypto jumped 320% year-over-year to ₱9.07 billion ($147 million), driven by 8.8 billion event contracts traded by users. Robinhood Banking grew five times since the last earnings report, pulling in $2 billion in net deposits with a 40% direct deposit attach rate. The Gold credit card hit 800,000 users with $15 billion in annualised purchase volume.

Robinhood has bought back $300 million in stock so far in 2026, and the board refreshed its buyback authorisation to $1.5 billion. Overall revenue still grew 15% year-over-year. Bernstein's team argued investors are looking in the rear-view mirror despite the quarterly miss, with the firm forecasting full-year 2026 earnings per share of $2.65.